My Prediction to When the Lockdowns May Come to an End

A while ago, I decided to look into vaccine distribution and availability in an attempt to ascertain when these incoherent lockdowns are very likely to end. To figure this out, I used mainly a lot of news sources to determine my timeline of this, as it seems as if the news media will be the ones who will determine what will happen in this consideration in states such as North Carolina being my native state.

My conclusion was that I personally believe that they will attempt to go back to normal by the March of 2021 and nearly thoroughly back to normal by May. This is based on a handful of presumptions in which some people may differ with:

1. I believe they are attempting to establish an economic boom for President-elect Biden in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2021, in order to increase their chances of winning bigly for the 2022 midterm elections. Some may believe that the pro-lockdown candidates will keep us locked down everlastingly, but I cannot see that occurring in a domain where people are going start evaluating the Biden administration for how things will be coming across.

If we are still forced to wear masks, having to socially distance ourselves, and have to hold everything virtually such as our schools when the 2022 midterms occur, it will be a historic defeat for the pro-lockdown candidates in both the general and primary elections and many of them understand that possibility. Many of their supporters also like attending concerts, eating at restaurants, enjoying ball games, participating in festivals, and so on. These people were just very eager to self-sacrifice these forms of entertainment that they greatly enjoy for the time being as they despised President Trump to a great degree. So they have to give up at one point, and I think that point will very pessimistically align with the dawn of a brand new economic quarter.

2. I personally believe the amount of people who will really be principled about declining the vaccines meant to combat COVID-19 are going to be incredibly microscopic. Probably that is because I have witnessed how much chatter everyone has when it comes to combating COVID along with how they will obey, but I do not believe we are a country with a huge amount of people who would refuse the vaccinations. Gallup states that 63% of people are very eager to be vaccinated, that is before there is any legal coercion placed on it, and experts state that only 75% of the population needs the vaccine to obtain herd immunity. I personally believe that we will obtain that without the need for several mandates and with no large amount of public opposition.

3. With that being stated reasonably, they will likely use the vaccine as their tool for declaring that everything will be returned to normal once more. They will likely state that they will need to obtain 75% of the populace to vaccinated to receive herd immunity, and I reasonably presume that they are going to hold the people hostage in the U.S.A. until that occurs. With 328.2 million people currently in America, that is roughly 246 million people they will want to be vaccinated.

We have 100 million doses each of both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, which are two shot vaccines. So 100 million people (or roughly 40% of the total population) can obtain it with the many current stockpiles of it. Health and Human Services anticipates that will accomplished near the end of February. Pfizer then believes they have the ability to cover 25 million additional people per quarter (starting with the second quarter) after that. There is also the recent news that Pfizer announced that it was negotiating with the federal government to allow 100 million more vaccines to be available, but the government is pushing for it in the second quarter.

That leaves AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson to assist covering the large population. Both seem as if they are scheduled for release in February, with one being early February and the other being late February. Both currently have 100 million doses created for large scale dispersal upon approval, which covers 150 million people (Johnson and Johnson has a single dose vaccine). If those timelines work out as planned, that would cover the necessary 250 million people. At that point I do not forsee the justification for keeping the populace locked down.

4. All of that being said, I personally believe these people are immoral to a degree to make a delay in vaccine distribution in an attempt to establish a full reopening with a new economic quarter, in an attempt to enhance their numbers. So I believe they search for a way to maintain several restrictions all the way through the month of March. My estimate is that the beginning of the 2021 MLB season will be their “grand reopening” of America.

5. All of this should be taken with a small grain of salt, despite my predictions on the U.S. government’s acknowledgement and public response to COVID have been right in many cases in the past, to the degree where I have never been in a position on in terms of many other subjects. To be understandable, I have made concise predictions on the science itself than almost any government official or “labcoat” , but on public perception I have been terrible. I was truly amazed at how compliant and unassertive the typical American was, how inclined dictatorial government officials in both Republican and Democratic parties have acted, and how lingering both have stood withstanding. So one may wonder if this prediction is worth it, but to the reason where I used all accredited sources was to try to construct my awareness on what they are stating and being told in terms of sources and information, since it is clear that our society has declared it is Karen’s opportunity to dictate the societal norms. Hopefully this will mean that the predictions will be more precise and error-free.



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Luis Ortiz

Luis Ortiz

FTCC Alumni 20' , Politico, UNCC, former campaign and party employee, science fiction aficionado.